The aviation industry faces the challenge of reducing CO2 emissions and aiming for net zero emissions by 2050. Current climate mitigation strategies in aviation involve market-based mechanisms like emissions trading and carbon offsetting, but they don't result in absolute emissions reductions. Technologies such as hydrogen-powered and battery-powered planes can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but their impact is limited to short-haul flights. Long-haul flights, which contribute significantly to fuel use, rely on liquid hydrocarbon fuels.
Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) pathways related to biomass, waste, and power-to-liquid (PtL) e-kerosene are being explored, but they have resource requirements and face challenges. Clean primary energy and biomass resources are limited, and significant investment is needed to grow the clean electricity sector. Estimates suggest that aviation's energy demand in 2050 will require substantial amounts of electricity and biomass, impacting land use.
The production of SAF at scale and minimizing unintended consequences have not been demonstrated yet. Assumptions about biomass carbon neutrality and SAF emissions reduction compared to fossil fuels are questioned due to uncertainties and limitations of feedstocks. All forms of SAF contribute to non-CO2 warming, increasing aviation's overall climate impact. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies are suggested for reaching net zero, but they are high risk and untested.
Prioritizing land for ecosystem carbon sinks over bioenergy is seen as a superior mitigation strategy. The implications of SAF usage for overall decarbonization efforts and resource allocation should be considered. The societal goal is not achieving net zero in a single sector but avoiding catastrophic climate impacts. The value and feasibility of SAF as a climate action depend on trade-offs, risks, and individual country contexts
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